Updated scenarios, teams qualified and clubs eliminated

We’re in September and that’s when the playoff races start heating up in MLS, as teams jockey for position and make their final postseason push with just a few weeks remaining in the regular season campaign. One team has already clinched with others soon to follow.

As with the new UEFA Champions League format, which takes a page out of the MLS playbook, higher seeding matters. That’s because the higher seed earns home-field advantage in every round of the playoffs, and it can potentially set up more favorable matchups with lower seeds in the early rounds.

In addition to the playoff race, there’s a Supporters’ Shield trophy that also needs to be handed out to the team with the best record during the regular season. That looks like it will come down to Inter Miami or the two Los Angeles teams unless defending MLS champions Columbus can go on a winning streak.

The first tiebreaker in the MLS table is different from other leagues and competitions, because it is (1) total wins, incentivizing teams to go out and chase victory in every match. After that, it goes to (2) goal differential and (3) goals scored, which are more in line with the international game. Those are followed by six other tiebreakers as outlined in league’s rules.

At GIVEMESPORT, we’re tracking the MLS playoff picture until the final bracket is set.

MLS Playoff Scenarios for Teams to Clinch

FC Cincinnati, Columbus Crew and LA Galaxy can join Inter Miami in the playoffs

We’re in mid-September, and we already have one team that has clinched an MLS playoff berth and three others can soon follow.

After Inter Miami secured their place in the postseason on August 24, we’ll have to wait until September 14 to see if perhaps another couple of teams can join them.

There are scenarios for FC Cincinnati, the Columbus Crew and the LA Galaxy have clinching scenarios on Saturday, September 14.

FC Cincinnati Playoff Scenarios

If any one of the following six scenarios unfolds on Saturday, September 14, FC Cincinnati would be mathematically qualified for the postseason:

• Cincinnati win or draw vs. Columbus
• Toronto loss or draw
• New England loss or draw
• Atlanta loss or draw
• Charlotte loss or draw
• New York Red Bulls loss or draw

Columbus Crew Playoff Scenarios

There are 17 different combinations that could help the defending MLS Cup champions officially return to the playoffs. We won’t list them all here, but you can check them by clicking on this link.

LA Galaxy Playoff Scenarios

If one of the following seven scenarios happens on September 14-15, the LA Galaxy will be in the playoffs:

• LA win AND an Austin FC loss or draw
• LA win AND a Minnesota United loss or draw
• LA win AND a Vancouver Whitecaps loss or draw
• LA win AND a Seattle Sounders loss or draw
• LA win AND a Real Salt Lake draw
• LA win AND a Portland Timbers draw
• LA draw AND Austin FC loss

Teams Qualified for MLS Playoffs 2024

One team has booked a spot in the postseason tournament to this point

There are still five weeks before the end of the MLS regular season and there will be verdicts and scenarios every matchday from now until Decision Day on October 19.

Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami became the first team to secure a place as one of the 18 qualified teams, including the two wild card qualifiers. And the Herons did it without their superstar, since he’s been out of action all summer on international duty and due to injury.

Teams Eliminated from MLS Playoffs 2024

The San Jose Earthquakes are nearing mathematical elimination

There will be a total of 11 teams (six in East and five in West) that will not be playing any more soccer after the end of the regular season on October 19. This is a list that teams will be hoping not to make … at least as close as possible to Decision Day.

With a league-low 17 points, the San Jose Earthquakes are a candidate for early elimination in the Western Conference, and that day could come as soon as September 14. Here’s the list of four scenarios on that Saturday that will see the Earthquakes eliminated:

• San Jose loss
• Minnesota United win
• San Jose draw AND Minnesota United draw
• San Jose draw AND Austin FC win

If The MLS Playoffs Started Today…

The potential first-round matchups would include a derby

The updated standings in each conference would produce some compelling first-round matchups if the seedings held true with six to eight matches to play for each team.

There’s the potential Hudson River Derby matchup in the Eastern Conference, and LAFC locking horns with a Houston Dynamo team that just beat them at home in the West.

Eastern Conference First Round (Best-of-Three) if the playoffs started today:

• No. 1 Inter Miami vs. No. 8 Toronto FC or No. 9 D.C. United
• No. 2 FC Cincinnati vs. No. 7 Orlando City
• No. 3 Columbus Crew vs. No. 6 Charlotte FC
• No. 4 NY Red Bulls vs. No. 5 NYCFC

Western Conference First Round (Best-of-Three) if the playoffs started today:

• No. 1 LA Galaxy vs. No. 8 Portland Timbers or No. 9 Minnesota United
• No. 2 LAFC vs. No. 7 Houston Dynamo
• No. 3 Real Salt Lake vs. No. 6 Vancouver Whitecaps
• No. 4 Colorado Rapids vs. No. 5 Seattle Sounders

The MLS playoffs start out with the single-elimination wild card matches between the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds in each conference. Then the postseason proceeds to a best-of-three conference quarterfinal series (first team to win two matches advances), followed by single-elimination knockout rounds from the conference semis all the way to MLS Cup.

The team with the best regular season record hosts two matches in the best-of-three conference quarterfinals, and every match in the subsequent rounds.

• Wed, Oct. 23: Wild Card matches (No. 8 vs. No. 9 in East & West)
• Sat., Oct. 26 to Sun, Nov. 10: Conference quarterfinals (best-of-three series)
• Sat, Nov. 23 to Sun, Nov. 24: Conference semifinals
• Sat, Nov. 30 to Sun, Dec. 1: Conference finals
• Sat, Dec. 7: MLS Cup 2024

Eastern Conference Playoff Race

Inter Miami aim to continue strong run atop the East

There has been no movement in the top eight spots of the Eastern Conference since before the international break. But there’s a new team that is in the ninth and final wild card spot.

DC United used a win in Chicago to leapfrog Atlanta United into 9th place. But Atlanta remain just one point behind and the hard charging Philadelphia Union are just two points removed. The other four teams at the bottom of the East will also still harbor hopes of making a final push.

*Standings updated through September 14

• Q = Qualified for playoffs
• E = Eliminated from playoffs
• WC = Wild card places

Western Conference Playoff Race

Austin and Dallas in desperate chase of the wild card spots

The top four spots remain unchanged, but there was plenty of movement in the spots immediately below, with Vancouver, Seattle, Houston, and Portland shaking up the order of the seeds heading into the final five weeks.

FC Dallas and Austin FC, who are just outside the playoff zone have their eyes firmly set on the wild card spots above them, sitting just two points away.

At the top of the table, the LA Galaxy and LAFC will face off on September 14 in a match that will go a long way toward determining which team will claim the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the postseason in the West.

*Standings updated through September 14

• Q = Qualified for playoffs
• E = Eliminated from playoffs
• WC = Wild card places